The Coming Technological Singularity

IN PROGRESS

Vinge, Vernor. "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in a Post-Human Era." VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.[1]. "A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review.[2]" Rpt. Latham, Science Fiction Criticism: An Anthology of Essential Writings.

Vernor Vinge is a science-fiction author and at the time of the presentation of this argument a teacher of math and computer science at San Diego State University. His 1981 novella True Names is "perhaps the first story to present a fully fleshed-out concept of cyberspace, which would later be central to cyberpunk stories by William Gibson, Neal Stephenson and others."[3] He is therefore doubly qualified to speculate on this topic.

From the Abstract of the linked version, paragraphing removed: "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. ¶ Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? [...] ¶¶ What is The Singularity? ¶ The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough [...]): • There may be developed computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent [later labeled AI]. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.) • Large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wake up' as a superhumanly intelligent entity. • Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. • Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect."